Hungary, Romania and Croatia: Doubts about Current Situation
Consistent with the results of the previous month, the financial experts are more cautious in their assessment of the medium-term economic prospects in Romania and Croatia in July. The sentiment indicator for Croatia notes the sharpest decline in the July survey of 21.9 points, reaching a value of minus 17.1 points – the lowest level among all analysed economies. Nonetheless, a majority of the analysts expect unchanged economic developments within a six month horizon. The indicator for Romania declines by 4.6 points in July, now standing at minus 6.8 points. After its significant decline in June, the indicator capturing the economic forecast for Hungary recovers slightly this month. The corresponding balance ascends by 2.3 points to minus 2.1 points, with most financial experts anticipating an unchanged cyclical situation, as well.

The respondents’ doubt concerning the present economic conditions in the three selected countries increases in July, as all three balances lose in value. The evaluation for the Hungarian economy recedes by 7.6 points to minus 85.4 points, bringing up the rear again within the analysed CEE countries. With regards to Romania and Croatia, the respective indicators decrease by 8.5 and 13.4 points to minus 76.6 and minus 69.8 points respectively.

Last month’s outcomes were characterised by a growing share of financial experts perceiving increased inflation risks for Hungary, Romania and Croatia. With respect to the latter two countries, this tendency has not carried over into July. The expectations of the analysts concerning the short-term interest rates in Croatia have changed substantially in July. Due to a strongly growing proportion of the experts predicting rising interest rates, the associated indicator turns positive this month, climbing 23.6 points to currently 9.3 points. The balance reflecting the analysts’ outlook for the development of the Hungarian stock index BUX improves marginally in the July survey and achieves the highest value in this category.